Here are some of the top stories impacting logistics and global trade.
After months of tariff volatility tied to broad reciprocal tariff policies and punitive duties, the worst of the tariff chaos appears to be easing. Most recently, key trading partner India has experienced some relief with the announcement of a new framework for an Interim Trade Agreement, which provides tariff clarity and de-escalation. Under this framework, most punitive tariffs imposed in 2025 were rescinded, and the U.S. cut reciprocal duties on Indian goods to 18% from previously effective levels of up to 50% (including base and punitive charges).
The USTR also announced a new reciprocal agreement with Taiwan. Under the agreement, Taiwan will eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on U.S. goods and provide preferential market access for U.S. industrial exports, including autos and auto parts, chemicals, seafood, machinery, health products, electrical products, metals, and minerals.
Our take: The tariff reset and framework provide much-needed “cost ceiling” and planning clarity for exporters on both sides, especially after a turbulent 2025. While uncertainty remains around implementation timelines and some sectors, February’s developments reduce headline tariff risk and should support trade flows into mid-year.
Logistics Managers’ Index: Warehousing Trends
The latest LogisticsManagers’ Index (LMI) for January 2026 shows the U.S. logistics sector continued to expand, with the overall index rising to 59.6, its highest level in seven months. Warehousing utilization rebounded into growth territory, rising to above 50, while warehousing capacity held steady around that threshold. However, warehousing prices edged down slightly relative to December, indicating that cost pressures remain a notable theme even as activity stabilizes. Transportation constraints and price inflation also persisted, suggesting that capacity and cost dynamics continue to shape operational decisions for network planning and fulfillment.
Our take: The rebound in warehousing utilization after months of contraction signals that inventories are beginning to balance out following tariff-driven frontloading and holiday-season flows. Costs remain elevated, but stabilization in utilization points to improved matching of space demand to inventory levels.
Who Actually Pays Tariffs? Domestic Cost Impact
A new analysis shows that tariffs, despite high headline rates, are largely borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, not by foreign exporters. The study finds that the majority of tariff costs on imported goods are passed directly to U.S. buyers through higher prices, rather than being absorbed by overseas suppliers. This dynamic affects consumer-goods pricing and production costs for U.S. manufacturers reliant on intermediate goods.
Our take: This analysis highlights a persistent and often-overlooked element of tariff policy: the end burden falls on U.S. businesses and households. For logistics and supply chain leaders, factoring these indirect cost impacts into total landed cost models and pricing strategies remains critical, even when headline tariff rates are lowered or restructured.
U.S. Container Imports: Falling in Early 2026
Industry forecasts project that U.S. container imports will contract through at least the first half of 2026, despite modest month-to-month rebounds. Forecasts from retailers and analysts estimate that total container volumes could fall year-over-year by about 5%–7% or more as tariff uncertainty, policy debates, and geopolitical influences weigh on ordering patterns. China’s share of imports declinedsharply in January, down nearly 23%.
Our take: Volume declines reflect more normalized shipping patterns after 2025’s frontloading, but ongoing tariff and policy uncertainty continues to influence importer behavior. Logistics teams should prepare for a softer import environment early in the year, adjusting capacity planning and contract strategies while monitoring signs of renewed demand later in 2026.
Visit www.transmodal.net for more logistics and trade updates.