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Here are some of the top stories impacting logistics and global trade.
The last month has been comparatively quiet regarding tariff news. The main story is the pending Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of many Trump tariffs, which could come any day.
Also notable is a social post from the President regarding a new tariff on any country doing business with Iran of 25% and threats about tariffs on countries not agreeing to the U.S. buying Greenland.
USMCA Review Shapes North America Trade: The U.S. Trade Representative has outlined five key supply chain priorities ahead of the USMCA’s 2026 review, including strengthened rules of origin, harmonized tariffs and customs procedures, better market access for food producers, critical mineral cooperation, and expanded labor and environmental standards. These changes aim to modernize and secure regional supply chains while addressing structural trade issues.
Our Take: Tariffs and trade will continue to create uncertainty in 2026 and beyond. Supply chain teams operating across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada must anticipate and plan for regulatory shifts that could affect sourcing decisions, tariffs, and compliance rules. Revising North American trade guidelines will impact cross-border logistics, cost structures, and inventory strategies. Staying on top of the news and working with partners to understand the impact will remain a priority, as it was in 2025.
Air Cargo: Strong Finish, Uneven Start: Global air cargo demand finished 2025 on a strong note, with December volumes rising around 6% year-over-year. However, weaker e-commerce signals mean growth in 2026 is expected to be more modest (around 2–3%). While overall freight demand climbed in 2025 thanks to rerouted trade flows, slowing e-commerce and policy changes could temper momentum this year.
Our take: Air cargo often carries high-value and time-sensitive goods, so slower growth may affect freight pricing and lead times. If pricing and demand continue to shift, companies reliant on air cargo will need to work harder to balance cost, service level, and network flexibility in their routing strategies.
Retail Imports Remain Weak: According to the latest Global Port Tracker report, annual U.S. retail import cargo volumes are projected to continue declining year-over-year through the spring as retailers front-load shipments ahead of tariff changes and consumer demand softens. Major U.S. ports saw lower container traffic in recent months, with only brief month-to-month rebounds expected ahead of the Asian Lunar New Year. Continued declines reflect both macroeconomic pressure and shifting seasonal patterns for ocean freight.
Our take: Prolonged import declines can signal slowing consumer demand and require adjustments in inventory planning, warehousing, and transportation capacity. For supply chain teams, anticipating lower volumes needs to be considered with go-forward planning. As pricing adjusts, work with your forwarder to ensure you are paying market-appropriate rates.
Visit www.transmodal.net for more logistics and trade updates.