Transmodal's Global Logistics and Trade Update - April 2026

TMC Client Advisory

Supply Chain & Trade Intelligence

 April 2026

SECTION 01 | Tip of the Month: Geopolitics & Building Supply Chain Resilience

Further Reading: Supply Chain Digital: How US-Iran Conflict is Reshaping Global Supply Chains

SECTION 02 | Energy & Fuel Update: The Cost of a Fragile Ceasefire

Prices Ease — But Far From Normal, and Recovery Will Take Months

A two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7, 2026, brokered by Pakistan and conditioned on Iran allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded immediately — Brent crude fell roughly 13% to approximately $94.80 per barrel, and U.S. WTI crude dropped over 15% to $95.75. However, the relief is relative, not restorative. Brent was trading at around $70 per barrel before the conflict began, meaning energy costs remain nearly 35% above pre-war levels even after the ceasefire-driven drop. The national average for U.S. gasoline surpassed $4.16 per gallon, up from $2.98 in late February. Diesel prices hovered near $5.65 per gallon, just below all-time highs.

Experts are cautioning against optimism. More than 40 energy assets across the Gulf — including Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, which accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG production — have suffered significant damage and face months-long repair timelines. Shipping fuel costs have surged sharply: jet fuel in North America is approximately 95% higher than before the war, directly inflating air freight costs. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index hit a record 3,737 in late March, and while the ceasefire pulled it back to around 2,000, war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf-transiting vessels remain at four times pre-war levels. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast Brent crude averaging above $90/barrel through Q2 2026. The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in global oil market history.

Carriers across both ocean and air are maintaining emergency fuel surcharges, and Q2 contract rates already locked in reflect wartime fuel costs. Meaningful relief for shippers is not expected before Q3 2026 at the earliest — and only if a durable peace deal follows the current ceasefire.

FURTHER READING: Renewable Matter: US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire — Gas and Oil Prices Drop

SECTION 03 | Tariff Update: Pharma & Metals — New Section 232 Levies

April 2 Proclamations Add Significant New Cost Layers for Importers

On April 2, 2026, President Trump issued two presidential proclamations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, significantly expanding the U.S. tariff landscape. The first imposes a 100% ad valorem tariff on patented pharmaceutical products and associated active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). These tariffs apply to products classified under more than 130 specified HTS subheadings. For the 17 named major drug companies listed in Annex III, the tariffs take effect July 31, 2026. All other companies face an effective date of September 29, 2026. Importantly, generic pharmaceuticals, biosimilars, and several specialty categories — including orphan drugs, cell and gene therapies, and certain nuclear medicines — are exempt at this time.

Companies that have executed or are negotiating "Most Favored Nation" pricing agreements with the Secretaries of Commerce and HHS — committing to onshore manufacturing and sell medications at MFN prices — qualify for a 0% tariff exemption through January 2029. Companies with approved U.S. onshoring plans receive a reduced 20% rate. Countries with broader trade deals with the U.S. face differentiated rates: the EU, Japan, Korea, and Switzerland face 15%; the U.K. faces 10%. The second proclamation overhauled Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper — now effective April 6, 2026. The 50% tariff on raw metals remains but is now calculated against the full price paid by U.S. importers, closing a longstanding loophole where foreign sellers undervalued exports to reduce their tariff burden. Derivative products with more than 15% metal content by weight face a new flat 25% tariff on total value.

Importers of metal-containing goods should carefully audit HTS classifications and revisit cost models given the revised calculation methodology.

Further Reading: CNBC: Trump Imposes New 100% Tariffs on Branded Pharmaceuticals, Adjusts Metals Levies

SECTION 04 | Ocean Freight Market Update

Rates Elevated Across All Trades — Ceasefire Provides No Quick Relief

Despite a two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, ocean freight rates remain substantially elevated and the Strait of Hormuz is not operating normally. As of April 12, daily vessel crossings through the Strait had collapsed more than 95% compared to pre-war levels. Iran quickly re-closed the Strait within hours of the ceasefire announcement and is reportedly restricting transits while charging tolls reported to exceed $1 million per vessel. Carriers are maintaining alternative routings via Africa's Cape of Good Hope and have established landbridges through Khor Fakkan, Sohar, and Jeddah. Xeneta data shows these alternative land routings have pushed weekly capacity into Jeddah and King Abdullah Port up 19%, while creating severe schedule disruptions at ports such as Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Khor Fakkan. The conflict has displaced an estimated 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity.

Rates on China-to-Jebel Ali trade are approaching $6,000/FEU — a 270%+ increase versus end-of-February levels. Even on the Transpacific, rates have climbed 37–40% since the start of the conflict, reaching $2,645/FEU from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast, as congestion at major Asian transshipment hubs in Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, and Port Klang spreads the disruption globally. Asia-to-Europe rates are now 22% higher year-over-year. Xeneta's Chief Analyst Peter Sand put it directly: carriers will not abandon alternative routings on the basis of a fragile two-week ceasefire, and shippers should plan for continued volatility and elevated rates throughout Q2 2026 and into Q3.

The FMC denied expedited approval for surcharges from Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM in late March, but Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS) and war risk premiums continue to stack on base rates across all trade lanes.

FURTHER READING: Two-Week US-Iran Ceasefire Not Enough to End Ocean Disruption or Surging Freight Rates

SECTION 05 | Air Freight Market Update

Rates Remain Near Crisis Highs — Full Recovery 1–2 Months Away

Air freight rates remain sharply elevated across all corridors affected by Middle East airspace closures, and analysts are unanimous that a full recovery is unlikely before June 2026 at the earliest. According to Xeneta data for the week ending April 5, spot rates on the South Asia-to-Europe corridor surged 105% year-over-year. Other key trades are similarly impacted: Europe-to-Middle East rates are up 87%, South Asia-to-North America up 82%, Southeast Asia-to-Europe up 72%, and South Asia-to-Middle East up 84%. Jet fuel prices in Asia are running approximately 160% above year-ago levels, fundamentally altering the unit economics of air cargo on affected routes.

Airlines including FedEx, Emirates SkyCargo, and multiple European carriers continue to avoid Middle Eastern hubs and airspace. Cathay Pacific tripled fuel surcharges in mid-March and is reviewing them every two weeks. Lufthansa Cargo and Singapore Airlines have introduced or increased fuel surcharges. One major airline, according to the Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarders, raised long-haul surcharges by more than fourfold. European freighter operators including Atlas Air and Cargolux have increased capacity to partially offset lost bellyhold capacity from grounded Middle Eastern carriers, but the overall market remains structurally constrained.

Exports note that even if the ceasefire holds and airspace reopens, rebuilding customer trust, re-establishing routes, and navigating insurance restrictions will take time: "Rates will not fall as fast as they went up." Shippers of pharmaceuticals, perishables, and time-critical goods face the sharpest exposure and should work closely with their logistics partners to secure capacity and manage cost exposure proactively.

FURTHER READING: Air Cargo News: Airfreight Recovery Could Take Months After US-Iran Ceasefire

This advisory is prepared by Transmodal Corp. for informational purposes. Market conditions are subject to rapid change. Contact your Transmodal account manager for guidance specific to your shipments. All rate data and market analysis sourced from publicly available industry reports as of April 13, 2026.