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Transmodal's Global Logistics and Trade Update - March 2026

TMC Client Advisory

Supply Chain & Trade Intelligence

March 2026

This monthly advisory summarizes key developments across trade policy, global shipping, ocean and air freight, and domestic logistics. It is intended to help importers, exporters, and supply chain managers understand current market conditions and take informed action.

01 | GEOPOLITICS & TRADE POLICY

Tariffs — IEEPA Ruling & What Comes Next

Late in February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a landmark 6–3 ruling striking down IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional, holding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the President authority to impose tariffs absent clear congressional authorization. The ruling created immediate change — but also significant new uncertainty for importers. Here is what is known right now:

  • IEEPA tariffs stopped being collected effective February 24, 2026, following the Supreme Court ruling and a subsequent Presidential Executive Order.
  • Section 122 tariffs were immediately imposed at 10% to replace IEEPA duties, effective the same date for 150 days. Their legality was immediately put into question, with 24 states filing suit in the Court of International Trade as early as March 5, 2026.
  • Other tariffs — including Section 232 tariffs on metals, automotive, and similar product categories — remain in effect and are unaffected by the ruling.
  • The Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that IEEPA duties must be refunded via reliquidation, but CBP currently does not have a formal refund mechanism in place. The process to issue refunds is expected to take several weeks to establish.
  • New Section 301 investigations are underway that could lead to additional country-specific tariffs if unfair trade practices are confirmed.

OUR TAKE

The Supreme Court ruling is a significant development, but it does not signal the end of tariff

complexity for importers — it marks the beginning of a new chapter. With IEEPA duties invalidated,

the Trump Administration has moved quickly to impose replacement tariffs under Section 122, and

the potential for further escalation under Section 301 and other authorities remains high.

Importers who paid IEEPA tariffs should act now to preserve and organize records of all entries

subject to IEEPA duties, including entry summaries and payment documentation. The refund

opportunity is real but complex — and timing will be critical. Those who are prepared will be better

positioned when formal refund guidance is issued.

Steps You Can Take Right Now:

  • Inventory all entries subject to IEEPA tariffs and document liquidation dates, as these govern
    protest and refund deadlines.
  • Consult trade counsel promptly to evaluate eligibility and determine the right administrative
    approach — protests, Post Summary Corrections, or CIT litigation.
  • Monitor Section 122 litigation closely, as its legality is already being challenged. Further tariff
    changes are likely before mid-year.
  • Review and update tariff pass-through provisions in supplier and customer contracts in light
    of the changing legal landscape.

For Further Reading

Conflict in Iran — Supply Chain Implications

On February 28, 2026, coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes targeted facilities across Iran, triggering immediate and wide-ranging disruptions to global supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply and 22% of global LNG exports transit — has been effectively shut down by Iran in retaliation, with vessel traffic plummeting from an average of 138 transits per day to near-zero within days of the conflict's outbreak. The supply chain impacts were felt immediately and show few signs of near-term resolution: 

  • Fuel prices rose sharply and remain volatile. The national average diesel price spiked from approximately $3.90 to $4.86 per gallon in the first week of March — the largest single-week increase since federal tracking began in 1994.
  • Ocean and air freight rates have surged. Carriers have imposed War Risk surcharges, conflict fees, and emergency cost recovery charges. Air cargo capacity fell approximately 18% globally within days of the conflict's start.
  • Major carriers — including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO, and Hapag-Lloyd — suspended or rerouted services through the region. Ships are being diverted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding significant transit time and cost.
  • Ocean freight delays of up to two weeks or more are occurring as vessels reroute, with congestion spreading to alternative hub ports across Asia and Europe.
  • Uncertainty remains high, and supply chain planning has become more difficult for all importers. Because global supply chains are deeply interconnected, disruptions in the Middle East have already spread to Asian manufacturing hubs, semiconductor supply chains, agricultural exports, and energy markets worldwide.

OUR TAKE

The conflict in Iran is arguably the most disruptive single event to hit global supply chains since the

COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike earlier Middle East tensions, this conflict has physically closed the Strait of

Hormuz — meaning supply disruptions are not a future risk, they are a present reality.

Combined with the ongoing tariff uncertainty described above, importers are facing a dual geopolitical

shock that requires immediate attention and a flexible, risk-aware supply chain strategy. Neither

disruption appears to be resolved quickly.

 Steps You Can Take Right Now: 

  • Audit your supplier base and inbound routes for exposure to Middle Eastern maritime lanes,
  • Gulf ports, and energy-dependent production regions.
  • Engage your freight forwarders and carriers proactively to understand current routing options,
  • surcharge structures, and realistic lead time expectations.
  • Build contingency plans around alternative sourcing, increased safety stock for high-risk product
  • categories, and multi-modal routing options
  • Monitor developments closely — the pace of escalation has been rapid, and the situation can
  • change materially in short order. 

For Further Reading

02 | GLOBAL PORTS & SHIPPING

Global ports and shipping networks are navigating a period of unprecedented volatility. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively eliminated one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, forcing mass rerouting of cargo around the Cape of Good Hope and dramatically extending transit times on key Asia-to-Europe and Middle East trade lanes. At the same time, the Panama Canal continues to face constraints from drought-related draft restrictions, adding further pressure to an already strained global network.

China's export sector has surged beyond expectations in early 2026, supported by strong global demand for electronics and industrial goods. Yet broader global trade momentum shows signs of slowing as tariff uncertainty and geopolitical disruption dampen shipper confidence and complicate demand forecasting. The result is a network under simultaneous strain from multiple directions — excess capacity in some lanes, critical bottlenecks in others.

Schedule reliability across major ocean trade lanes remains uneven. While some carriers report modest improvements on specific routes, persistent delays and capacity imbalances reflect the operational strain being placed on global shipping networks. The combination of rerouting, surcharge proliferation, and congestion at alternative hub ports means that the concept of a "normal" shipping market has been suspended indefinitely.

 

OUR TAKE

Ports and supply chains must now navigate an operating environment where reliability — not just

cost — is the primary concern. The simultaneous disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea

has triggered widespread rerouting, elevated war-risk insurance costs, and cascading congestion at

alternative hubs from Rotterdam to Singapore.

For importers and exporters, flexibility and proactive planning have never been more important.

Tighter vessel capacity, dynamic route management, and fluctuating regional demand mean that

port calls, transit times, and total landed costs can change rapidly and without warning.

Steps You Can Take Right Now:  

  • Prioritize supply chain visibility — invest in tools that provide real-time tracking across your carrier
    and routing network so you can identify disruptions before they become critical.
  • Review lead time buffers and reorder points across your product portfolio to account for the new
    reality of extended and less predictable transit times.
  • Work closely with freight forwarders and logistics partners to understand alternative routing
    options and contingency plans before disruptions occur.
  • Anticipate continued surcharge volatility and factor elevated shipping costs — including war-risk 
    premiums and emergency fuel surcharges — into your cost modeling through at least the first 
    half of 2026. 

For Further Reading

03 | INTERNATIONAL OCEAN & AIR FREIGHT

Ocean Freight

Ocean freight markets are entering a period of heightened uncertainty. U.S. import volumes are projected to soften in 2026 amid slowing consumer demand and inventory adjustments, and global vessel capacity remains structurally abundant. But geopolitical disruptions — most acutely the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing avoidance of the Red Sea — continue to create significant rate volatility and route unpredictability across major trade lanes.

Even in lanes where capacity appears plentiful on paper, carriers are adjusting schedules, deploying capacity dynamically, and implementing an aggressive array of surcharges — including emergency conflict fees, war-risk premiums, and fuel surcharges — to recover elevated operational costs. Shippers should expect sporadic service gaps and sudden cost increases to continue, particularly on Asia-to-North America and Asia-to-Europe routes most affected by rerouting around Africa.

Air Freight

Global air cargo continues to see elevated demand, though growth has moderated slightly in early 2026 following record volumes in 2025. Demand is becoming more segmented by industry, with technology, healthcare, and time-sensitive industrial goods driving the strongest volumes, while e-commerce shows early signs of softening. The conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted air freight capacity in the region, with major carriers — including Emirates SkyCargo, FedEx, and Qatar Airways — temporarily suspending flights to and from Gulf markets, reducing available belly-hold and freighter capacity globally.

As a result, air freight rates have surged on routes that previously relied on Middle Eastern hubs for transshipment, and capacity constraints are rippling across global networks. Shippers dependent on Gulf-connected routings should anticipate ongoing service volatility and explore alternative air routing options through Southeast Asian or European hubs.

 

OUR TAKE

Ocean and air freight markets are being severely impacted by geopolitics, and the ongoing uncertainty

makes traditional cost and capacity planning extremely difficult. The key insight is that this is not a

temporary spike — the disruption to both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz represents a

fundamental shift in how global freight moves, and it will persist for the foreseeable future.

Working with suppliers and transportation partners to maximize routing flexibility — and watching

developments closely — is the best course of action right now. Locking in capacity early where

possible, even at a premium, may prove to be the right risk management decision.

Steps You Can Take Right Now:  

  • Engage your ocean and air carriers now to understand booking availability, current surcharge
    structures, and alternative routing options for your key trade lanes.
  • Build multi-modal contingency plans: for critical or time-sensitive shipments, evaluate air freight
    as a bridge even if costs are elevated.
  • Consider booking longer-term capacity agreements where possible to provide cost predictability
    and access to carrier priority during disruptions.
  • Review your inventory strategy: longer lead times due to Cape of Good Hope rerouting require 
    earlier ordering and larger safety stock buffers. 

For Further Reading

04 | STATESIDE LOGISTICS

U.S. inland freight markets remain mixed but manageable as of March 2026. Intermodal volumes are showing modest growth, while overall rail traffic remains uneven amid ongoing industry discussions about consolidation and network optimization. Any expanded or merged rail operations could either compete with or complement long-haul trucking, adding further uncertainty to domestic freight planning.

Truckload markets remain soft overall, with spot and contract rates still under pressure due to several years of excess capacity and moderate demand — particularly on major east–west lanes. However, conditions are quietly tightening. Carrier exits have reduced available fleet capacity to near-decade lows, and the trucking market appears to be approaching an inflection point. Diesel prices spiked sharply in early March — the national average rose from approximately $3.90 to $4.86 per gallon in a single week, the largest weekly increase on record — adding immediate upward pressure on carrier operating costs.

Seasonal freight peaks have been muted so far in 2026, but most analysts project that the market will firm meaningfully by mid-year as capacity continues to tighten and freight demand gradually improves. For-hire carrier capacity has likely reached or is near its cyclical low — meaning the next significant shift in freight demand could translate directly into rate increases with limited capacity to absorb it.

 

OUR TAKE

The domestic trucking market is in transition. After four years of a prolonged freight recession, capacity

has tightened significantly, operating costs are rising, and rates appear poised for a sustained recovery

beginning mid-2026. The recent spike in diesel prices — the largest weekly increase in the history of

federal tracking — is a signal that upward pressure on freight costs is building, not subsiding.

Shippers who take advantage of the current buyer's market conditions now — by locking in favorable

contract rates and building strong carrier relationships — will be better positioned when the market

tightens. Waiting may mean paying higher rates with less carrier flexibility.

Steps You Can Take Right Now:  

  • Approach your key carriers now to lock in contract rates while market conditions still favor shippers.
    The window for favorable contract negotiations may be closing.
  • Prioritize carrier relationship-building: as capacity tightens, shippers with strong partnerships and
    predictable freight profiles will get better service and pricing.
  • Integrate intermodal options into your routing guide for longer-haul lanes where they offer cost
    and capacity advantages.
  • Monitor fuel cost volatility closely and review your fuel surcharge agreements with carriers to ensure
    they reflect current market dynamics.
  • Develop network optimization plans now — before a demand-driven rate surge makes them more 
    difficult and expensive to execute. 

For Further Reading

 

This advisory is prepared for informational purposes and reflects conditions as of March 2026. Please contact your TMC representative for guidance specific to your business.