Transmodal's Logistics and Trade Update – November, 2025
The Legality of Tariffs
The Supreme Court heard arguments challenging President Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs. Several justices, including Roberts and Barrett, appeared skeptical that IEEPA grants the president such authority and questioned whether Congress intended “regulate importation” to mean imposing tariffs. A group of states and small businesses is arguing that tariffs bypass Congress’s constitutional powers and have caused them financial harm. If the Court sides against Trump, it could result in significant tariff refunds and a complete overhaul of trade policy.
Our take: It will still likely be a month or more until a ruling is made, so there is not much anyone can do in the meantime. The White House has said there are options besides tariffs it will pursue if the Supreme Court rules against them. The point is that a ruling against tariffs may not be an end to this discussion, so importers should be prepared for that.
Read more here.
The U.S.- China Trade War
President Trump has announced a sweeping economic and trade deal with China, said to be a major win for U.S. workers and businesses. The agreement commits China to halt fentanyl precursor exports, lift rare earth mineral controls, open markets to U.S. agriculture, ease tariffs, and resume purchases from U.S. semiconductor and log exporters. In return, the U.S. will ease certain tariffs on Chinese imports and extend tariff exclusions, while both nations pause new retaliatory measures.
Our take: Although this is good news on the surface, it still appears to be a little bit of “kicking the can down the road.” U.S. tariffs on China are still elevated at 47%, and the port fee issue is paused for a year… not resolved. Importers should prepare for more to come on this.
Read more here.
The Logistics Manager’s Index
The October 2025 Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) held steady at 57.4, hiding some big shifts. Inventory levels contracted (49.5), reflecting early holiday sales and easing warehousing demand, while transportation metrics surged: prices jumped to 61.7 and utilization hit 57.3, especially downstream near retailers. The change indicates a shift from static, inventory-heavy supply chains to more dynamic goods movement as holiday shopping began. Inventory costs remain elevated (73.2), suggesting continued price pressures across the supply chain.
Our take: Looking ahead, respondents expect tighter, leaner inventories with higher warehousing and transportation costs through 2026. Tariff uncertainty still casts a shadow, but freight activity is bouncing back, led by consumer-driven demand and strong market performance downstream.
Read more here.