Transmodal's Logistics and Trade Update September 2026

IN THIS ISSUE

The Drewry World Container Index held stable on September 3 at the same level as the prior week, but that headline figure conceals a market running in two directions. Transpacific rates moved up again, with Shanghai to Los Angeles rising 5% and Shanghai to New York up 3% week-on-week. Asia-Europe moved the other way, with Shanghai to Genoa falling 10% and Shanghai to Rotterdam down 5%. Both trends are expected to persist. Drewry has confirmed 47 blank sailings are planned across the major East-West trades between weeks 37 and 41, covering late August through early October, representing approximately 6% of scheduled capacity. Carriers are actively managing the market. That is not the behavior of an industry preparing to let rates fall.   

What changed in September: The September market is tracking this forecast: firmer Transpacific pricing, softer Asia-Europe corrections, and sustained capacity discipline. Asia-US East Coast capacity declined approximately 9% in August compared to July, while Asia-US West Coast capacity was roughly flat month-on-month. Several carriers have also introduced Panama Canal-related surcharges for Asia-US routing, reflecting new low-water restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority that are adding cost and, in some cases, forcing routing decisions to East Coast via Cape of Good Hope or through the Suez Canal. Maersk indicated in August that only around half of its services using the Suez Canal have returned to that route, meaning the majority of its fleet remains on the longer, more expensive Cape routing.

We're seeing the Intra-Asia container market add complexity to the overall picture. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index rose 9% in the week of September 3, driven by equipment shortages and growing export demand out of Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India as manufacturers continue to diversify away from China. Bangladesh garment exporters in particular are struggling for space amid tightening equipment availability at South Asian ports, per reporting from The Loadstar this week. For importers with multi-origin Asian sourcing strategies, this means rate and space pressures are no longer concentrated at Chinese loading ports alone. They are spreading across the region, and the allocation management required to execute a multi-origin strategy has become materially more complex than it was six months ago.

The forward-looking capacity picture supports continued firmness. Six blank sailings are confirmed for the coming week alone, double the prior week's total, per Drewry's Container Capacity Insight. The concentration of upcoming blanks on Transpacific lanes means shippers should assume available space will tighten further heading into the Golden Week period, which begins October 1. Importers who have not yet secured October sailings face a narrowing window. The practical distinction that matters most right now: a low spot quotation is not the same as confirmed space. Carriers are rolling cargo from lower-priority accounts to fill premium allocations, and a booking without confirmed vessel assignment is not a booking in the current environment. 

ADDITIONAL READING

Three developments in the past few weeks have compounded each other in ways that directly affect supply chain cost and planning. The US imposed expanded secondary sanctions on Iran on August 24, threatening to cut off any country still trading with Tehran from the global financial system. The collapse of US-Canada trade talks on August 21 triggered a 50% US tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, with Canada pledging dollar-for-dollar retaliation from September 8. And the UAE cut trade and financial ties with Iran entirely following the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. These are not isolated developments. They are interconnected signals that the geopolitical and trade architecture the past two decades were built on is being actively dismantled.   

On US-Iran: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new sanctions package on August 24 targeting Iran's trading partners, not just Iran itself. The measures expand secondary sanctions exposure, warning that any country conducting economic activity with Iran risks having its key companies and financial entities cut off from the US financial system. Bessent confirmed the sanctions would not be applied immediately, giving active trading partners time to wind down activity. But the direction is unmistakable: the US is applying maximum economic pressure to force resolution of the Hormuz situation and Iran's toll-transit demands. The World Economic Forum analysis published this week notes that shipping networks are actively adapting to the changed trade map, with routing, insurance, and flag-of-convenience decisions being made in real time. Sixty Iranian entities were directly sanctioned in the same announcement.

On US-Canada: The collapse of cross-border trade talks on August 21 has imposed a 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods, effective August 19. Prime Minister Carney implemented retaliatory tariffs beginning September 8. The World Economic Forum analysis estimates the measures push the effective US tariff rate on Canadian imports from 5.1% to 6.9%, but analysts note that the psychological and investment-confidence impact is substantially larger than the rate increase alone suggests. The USMCA framework remains technically in force through 2036, but with annual reviews now the mechanism and cross-border tariffs escalating in parallel, the practical stability that agreement provided is eroding rapidly. Importers with Canadian-origin goods should review their HTS classifications and exemption status immediately, with particular attention to energy, potash, fish, and critical minerals, which carry specific carve-outs from the current round.

The Reed Smith tariff tracker, updated September 2, documents the cumulative complexity importers are now navigating: Section 301 forced-labor tariffs effective July 24 on 60 countries, a 25% Brazil tariff effective July 22, the 50% Canada tariff from August 19, and the ongoing Section 232 frameworks covering steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals, and machinery. The trade compliance workload has grown faster than most importers' internal teams can absorb. We're seeing the costs of misclassification and missed exemptions rise materially with each new layer. The companies managing this best have invested in continuous HTS audit processes that update as new tariff schedules are published, rather than treating classification as a one-time customs entry exercise. 

ADDITIONAL READING

This time of year, air freight rates typically fall. Demand eases during the summer low season, passenger belly hold capacity adds supply, and cargo volumes soften before the Q4 peak. None of that happened in August 2026. TAC Index confirmed that air freight rates barely moved during the summer period, remaining at elevated levels for a time of year when the market historically corrects. The reason is straightforward: jet fuel costs gained 8.2% in the month to August 28 and are now 74% above year-ago levels per the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor. The cost floor is structural, not seasonal.

What changed in September: The Loadstar reported on September 3 that after a strong first half, air cargo demand remained buoyant into Q3, with DHL's Global Air Freight data confirming global air cargo demand grew 9% year-on-year in June 2026, the strongest gain of the year, bringing H1 growth to 5% year-on-year. IATA data confirmed global air cargo demand continues to outpace capacity growth, with Middle Eastern carriers still operating at reduced levels relative to pre-conflict capacity. Some experts have dramatically revised their 2026 air freight rate outlook from a projected 5-10% decline to an expected 5-15% increase, confirming the demand-capacity imbalance is structural and has not been corrected by the partial Hormuz recovery.

We're seeing two distinct demand dynamics running simultaneously. On the one hand, AI and semiconductor cargo continues to dominate capacity utilization on Taiwan, South Korea, and South-east Asia origins, with load factors on those lanes remaining near or above 90%. Global semiconductor sales surged over 100% year-on-year in April per Xeneta data, and that shipment volume has not diminished meaningfully in subsequent months. On the other hand, Asia-Europe volumes have softened since the EU removed de minimis treatment for low-value imports on July 1, with Hong Kong export tonnage declining in three consecutive weeks following the rule change as Chinese low-value e-commerce flows collapsed on that lane. The two dynamics mean the aggregate market number masks very different conditions by lane and origin. Singapore's government delayed implementation of its new Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate by one year, providing modest relief on the compliance cost side.

The Q4 early-peak warnings we heard have not been withdrawn. Multiple analysts have noted that the combination of sustained AI cargo demand, residual Hormuz capacity constraints, and the possibility of further modal shift from ocean to air as Golden Week approaches could bring the traditional air freight peak season earlier than Q4. Shippers moving pharmaceuticals, medical devices, electronics, and any time-sensitive goods from Asian origins should be operating on a 14-21 day advance booking window minimum. Spot market exposure at peak rates on AI-hardware-competing lanes from Taiwan and Korea is the most expensive outcome currently available in air freight procurement, and it is the outcome that results from planning on normal seasonal patterns in what is not a normal year.

ADDITIONAL READING

Bunker prices are moving higher with the immediate driver that Iran declared complete control over the Strait of Hormuz on September 8. Trading Economics confirms Brent is now approximately 40% above pre-war levels and running close to triple-digit territory. Analysts are saying the latest escalation could keep Persian Gulf supply constrained through the rest of 2026, with no full return to pre-war throughput expected until late Q1 or early Q2 2027. 

What changed this week: Iran's assertion of complete authority over the Strait of Hormuz, reported by Bloomberg and covered by Engine.online on September 8, triggered the sharpest single-day crude price move in several weeks. Tehran is preparing a final agreement with Oman to establish a new shipping corridor through the Strait while retaining sovereign control over it, a formulation Washington has rejected under international law. ING Bank analysts noted that if Strait of Hormuz flows continue uninterrupted despite the escalation, upward price pressure may begin to fade, but as of September 9 the market is pricing elevated risk. The EIA's September 9 STEO release provides the latest official energy outlook and is the data point carriers and bunker traders will use to reset surcharge calculations for October. With Brent running near $100/bbl at the time of this writing, the September STEO assumptions are the most critical planning input available right now.

We're seeing the bunker cost impact show up directly in how carriers are filing surcharges week-to-week. Emergency Fuel Surcharges that were filed in August based on then-current crude prices are already below the September 8-9 market level, meaning carriers will reset those frameworks as soon as the new EIA data is published and distributed. The IMO's 100% EU ETS cost requirement, which took full effect at the start of 2026 after phasing in at 40% in 2024 and 70% in 2025, has added a permanent compliance layer on top of volatile VLSFO pricing. For vessels calling at European ports, that compliance cost is now a structural floor that does not ease even when crude prices pull back temporarily.

The operational message is direct and time-sensitive. Singapore VLSFO at $852/mt is approximately 60% above the pre-war baseline of roughly $530/mt that carriers were using to set bunker components in late 2025 contracts. Every Emergency Bunker Surcharge, BAF adjustment, or fuel cost revision in a new ocean quotation you receive in September is being calculated against today's physical price, not last month's forecast. Importers who locked ocean rates and surcharge frameworks before this week's crude move have short-term cost protection that will not survive contract renewal. Those entering rate negotiations in September are doing so at the highest effective fuel cost baseline of the year. Plan surcharges as a growing share of total ocean freight cost through at minimum Q1 2027, and treat any short-term crude pullback as a hedging opportunity rather than evidence that the structural fuel cost problem has resolved. 

ADDITIONAL READING

Sea-Intelligence has recorded the sharpest single-month decline in global container schedule reliability since January 2021. Global on-time performance fell 6.1 percentage points to 56.4% in July 2026. Every one of the 14 busiest container ports in Asia recorded a decline. At Shanghai, the world's largest container port, just 21% of vessels arrived on schedule. At Yantian, reliability fell 23.5 percentage points to 48.3%. At Ningbo-Zhoushan, now the world's second-largest container port, reliability dropped 20.1 percentage points to 34.6%. When fewer than one in three vessels arrives on time at major Chinese loading ports, the schedule printed on a booking confirmation has little operational meaning.

What happened in July and August: The Sea-Intelligence data published August 26 covering July 2026 identified two primary drivers. First, successive typhoons hit China's east coast during July, with Typhoon Saudel causing particularly severe disruption at Shanghai and Ningbo in the final weeks of the month. Second, the wider structural congestion caused by Hormuz rerouting, Cape of Good Hope sailing schedules, and peak season demand created a baseline of delayed arrivals that the typhoon impacts compounded rather than caused. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy noted that the 2.3 million TEU of effective capacity absorbed by delays and congestion represents a significant structural tightening of available vessel supply, independent of any new vessel ordering or blank sailing program. The congestion itself has become a form of capacity management.

European port congestion adds a second layer to the performance picture. Persistent congestion at North European ports has kept schedule reliability on transatlantic services below 50% for much of 2026. In July, only 28% of services from North Europe to the US East Coast arrived on time. Yard utilization at Rotterdam and Antwerp has regularly exceeded 90%, per CLECAT, complicating terminal operations and delaying containers bound for the United States. Rotterdam is also facing a nationwide Dutch port strike scheduled for September 4, which freight operators expect to add further delay and congestion pressure to an already-stressed North European terminal environment.

We're seeing the schedule reliability collapse translate directly into inventory planning failures for importers who have been managing lean, just-in-time replenishment cycles. When average delays for late vessels reach 6.06 days and major loading port on-time rates are at 21-34%, a shipment that was planned to arrive on October 3 is just as likely to arrive on October 9 or 10. That variability cannot be managed by ordering earlier alone. It requires either safety stock buffers built specifically to absorb multi-day arrival uncertainty, or sourcing from origins with meaningfully better port performance. The Freightwaves analysis published September 3 confirms that all 14 of the busiest Asian ports saw reliability declines in July. MSC is continuing a limited restoration of Suez Canal services, which, when it broadens, should provide some structural improvement to schedule reliability by shortening voyage times and reducing the bunching pressure that Cape-routed vessels create at destination ports. But a Suez Canal full return could also create an 8.7% year-on-year contraction in effective vessel capacity if all carriers shift simultaneously, compressing a different part of the supply chain.

ADDITIONAL READING